European physical coal prices
dipped again on Monday, pressured by oversupply, utilities and
traders said. UK gas prices also fell, as seaborne imports rose while
weaker oil prices weighed on forward contracts
but bearish spot fundamentals were having more of an effect on
coal values than other energy markets, they said.
South African prompt prices fell most markedly - a June
loading cargo was bid $1.50 lower than Friday at $100.50 a tonne
FOB Richards Bay - but there was limited interest in Richards
Bay cargoes on Monday. "Prices are not going to rise much above these levels,
they're more likely to stay at $100 or below for the rest of the
year - there's just too much coal from the U.S. and Colombia in
traders' hands," one utility source said.
A slump in U.S. domestic coal demand due to environmental
constraints and extremely weak natural gas prices, has forced
producers into the export market where they can achieve slim
margins as an alternative to the more drastic measure of
shutting in production. The U.S. exported around 37 million tonnes of thermal coal
in 2011 and is poised to maintain this kind of export level even
if prices stay around $100 a tonne DES ARA, analysts, traders
and end-user buyers said.
Regardless of the so-called spark and dark spreads - the
margins made from generating power from gas or coal - utilities
will try to consume their coal stockpiles and still have to
dispose of coal bought on forward contracts which they now do
not need.
These factors are keeping the European utilities largely out
of the spot market and while Asian demand is picking up - a lot
of spot business is expected to be done at this week's Beijing
coal conference - it is not rising as rapidly as had been
expected.
"China
is buying but if you see Colombian coal being sold at a discount of up
to $5.00 a tonne into China by traders, and that's what's happening,
then that's a very bearish sign," a European trader said.
"All eyes will be on Beijing this week to see how much U.S.
coal the longs manage to sell," another trader said.
TRADES
Two June delivery DES ARA cargoes traded at $96.90 and $97.00
a tonne, down around 20 cents.
PRICES
A June South African cargo was bid at $100.50 and offered at
$102.10, down $1.50 on the bid.
Source: Reuters.com
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